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Luck of the draw

Posted by Hadyn on Wednesday, 02 Dec 2009.

The Football World Cup finals are being drawn this weekend. The seedings have been done and the four "pots" confirmed.

  1. South Africa (group A), Argentina, Brazil, England, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain
  2. Australia, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Honduras, Mexico, USA, New Zealand
  3. Algeria, Cameroon, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay
  4. Denmark, France, Greece, Portugal, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland

One team will taken from each pot to make the eight groups of four teams. Simple.

For New Zeland that means that there are 512 possible combinations of opponents. But what's the best one? Based strictly on current world rankings it would be in Group A with South Africa (86), Ghana (37), and Slovakia (34).

The worst would be Spain (1), Cameroon (11), and Portugal (5).

Please Charlise, be nice to us!

article_0_05CBBB06000005DC_836_468x652.jpg

 

Obviously it's impossible to know who we are going to end up playing but we can guess at the strength of the opposition.

The average ranking of Pot 1 is roughly 15, which is like playing Mexico. The problem is that South Africa is the lowest ranked team in the competition which drags down the average. Really Pot 1 is all the best teams (except Portugal and France). A better average is about 6 to 8 (Germany, France, Argentina).

The average ranking of Pot 2 is 43 which is like playing Japan (who happen to be in Pot 2). This is the losers pot and hence the All Whites are also in it. Which is a shame because we might have beaten North Korea.

The average ranking of Pot 3 is roughly 23 which is like playing the Czech Republic. Except the Czech aren't at the Cup and Pot 3 is filled with African and South American nations. So let's say it's more like playing Nigeria.

The average ranking of Pot 4 is roughly 19 which is like playing Uruguay. Uruguay is one of the countries in Pot 3 so let's round up to 20 which is Serbia.

So, my crazy prediction is that one of the groups will be Argentina, Japan, Nigeria, and Serbia. And if I'm right you all owe me a beer.

RugbyBlips: vote it up!

Shouldn't it be the median country in each pot rather than the one closest to the average?

Regards, Statistician

There's eight countries in each pot, as a statistician you'll see my dilemma :)

I’ve read the fine print of the draw now and there aren’t 512 possible combinations open to NZ, but 424.

What's the fine print and where's the change from?

If South Africa is drawn from Pot A, then the team drawn from the Sth America / Africa pot in that group can not be African.

And the converse applies if Argentina / Brazil get drawn from Pot A.

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